Basic Prerequisites: 04 · Advanced Dynamics and Black–Scholes–Merton (familiarity with the characteristic-function method).


1. Intuition & Practical Objective

This page is the launchpad from surface empirics to the model toolkit. The four moves:

  1. Stochastic volatility with a closed-form-ish price - Heston. A second Brownian driver on variance; prices via a characteristic function and a one-dimensional Fourier integral. Exactly the machinery that makes SV calibration (to hundreds of quotes) feasible.
  2. SABR - an industry standard smile parametrization (not a full dynamics), exact in the short-expiration limit.
  3. Forward-variance / Bergomi models - model the variance curve directly; exactly calibrated to a VS term structure by construction, with direct control of the vol-of-vol term structure (Bergomi ch 7).
  4. Rough volatility - the empirical finding that realized volatility is rougher than a diffusion (), motivating fractional/rough SV.

The practical objective: know how to compute an SV price fast (Fourier), how calibration is posed, and where the frontier (rough vol, joint calibration of SPX/VIX) sits.

One-line essence. “Heston gives the tractable SV price via a characteristic function; SABR gives the tractable smile; Bergomi gives control of the term structure; rough vol explains why all of them still mis-calibrate the very short end.”


2. Mathematical Ground Truth & Derivations

2.1 Heston model (Gatheral ch 2; Bergomi ch 6)

The variance is a CIR/square-root process (a special affine jump-diffusion; Duffie–Pan–Singleton 2000). Its PDE is (1.3) with ; the European price is with the pseudo-probabilities (Gatheral eq 2.5–2.6).

The characteristic function (Gatheral eq 2.12–2.15): with (forward-relative), ,

Pricing by Fourier (Lewis 2000; Gatheral eq 5.6, zero rates/dividends):

The integrand decays fast; a few thousand points suffice. The equivalent Heston (1993) two-probability form is with . Both use the same and must agree in principle (the code below validates the Lewis integrator against the BS closed form and checks ).

Consistency checks on any : (normalization) and (the martingale condition , which holds in the forward-relative convention used here and in the code below).

2.2 SABR (Hagan et al. 2002; Gatheral §7.2)

with the exact implied-vol formula (Gatheral eq 7.7) and ATM skew . No mean reversion ⇒ short-expiration tool only. The Medvedev–Scaillet expansion reproduces SABR for small .

2.3 Forward-variance / Bergomi models (Bergomi ch 7)

State variables with , , and an -factor Markov-functional representation by OU processes:

exactly calibratable to a VS term structure and exactly simulable (Bergomi eq 7.10/7.13–7.18). Two factors capture the empirical power-law vol-of-vol term structure , (Bergomi eq 7.40). This is the current desk-grade answer to LV’s forward-skew failure.

2.4 Rough volatility

Empirically the log-realized-volatility has Hurst (much rougher than a diffusion’s ), motivating with a fractional Brownian motion. Rough SV reproduces the short-dated skew (steeper than any SV model allows), which is exactly the short-end failure flagged in §04/05. Beyond this folder’s verified corpus - treated as a forward pointer.


3. Computational Implementation - Heston by Fourier, verified against BS

We implement the Heston characteristic function and a single Lewis integral pricer, then (i) validate the integrator by feeding it the Black–Scholes characteristic function and checking it reproduces the closed form, (ii) check the two Heston martingale identities , and (iii) produce a Heston smile. Stdlib only (cmath).

The Fourier integrator reproduces the Black–Scholes closed form to - the numerical proof that the Lewis representation and the characteristic function are correctly implemented. The Heston CF satisfies both martingale identities exactly, and the resulting smile is downward-sloping ( at down to at ) at the very parameters (Table 3.2) that were shown in §04 to be too flat at the short end - the calibration failure that motivates jumps, forward-variance models, and rough vol.

Calibration, in one paragraph. Calibration is a nonlinear least-squares fit of model prices to the whole surface, typically weighted by vega/bid-offer. Heston has 5 parameters ; two expirations fix and , the term structure gives , and the skew curvature separates from (Gatheral §3.4). But since the surface shape is model-generic, good fits are easy and do not validate the model - only the dynamics (SSR, forward skew) do.


4. Failure Modes & First-Principles Breakdowns

  1. Complex-logarithm branch cuts. The alternate Heston CF form suffers jumps when the log argument crosses the negative real axis (winding number; Kahl–Jäckel 2005). Use the form , whose argument appears never to cut the axis (Gatheral §2.2).
  2. Negative variance in simulation. Euler on the CIR variance step gives negative ; use the Milstein/Andersen scheme , which stays positive when (Gatheral §2.2).
  3. Over-fitting the surface. With enough parameters any model fits the vanillas; the real constraints (forward skew, vol-of-vol term structure, VIX options) are invisible in today’s slice (Bergomi ch 5–8).
  4. Wrong tool for the horizon. SABR for long expirations, Heston for forward-skew exotics, LV for cliquets - each is a documented mis-application (Gatheral ch 7, Bergomi ch 2–3).
  5. Calibration instability. SV parameters trade off (e.g. vs through ); the fit is ill-conditioned and unstable across days, especially when jumps are added. Regularize, fit jointly across expirations, and check parameter stability over time.

5. References

  • Gatheral, The Volatility Surface
  • Bergomi, Stochastic Volatility Modeling
  • Hagan, Kumar, Lesniewski, Woodward (2002) SABR; Lewis (2000) small- and Fourier pricing; Medvedev–Scaillet (2004); Duffie–Pan–Singleton (2000) affine models; Kahl–Jäckel (2005) branch cuts. Rough volatility: Gatheral–Jaisson–Rosenbaum (2018)

6. Connected Graph Bridges